When we were Back-to-the-land hippies, this was our Bible. The Whole Earth Catalog has been saved on the internet.
My wife is holding our first daughter, as we take a sunset ride over the hay field on a sled pulled by Sue & Sal, our matched Percherons.
When we were Back-to-the-land hippies, this was our Bible. The Whole Earth Catalog has been saved on the internet.
New research corroborates this threat that I featured in my Blog back in 2015 https://terryorisms.com/2015/10/12/how-global-warming-can-start-an-ice-age/
Superstorms, abrupt climate shifts and New York City frozen in ice. That’s how the blockbuster Hollywood movie “The Day After Tomorrow” depicted an abrupt shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation and the catastrophic consequences.
While Hollywood’s vision was over the top, the 2004 movie raised a serious question: If global warming shuts down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which is crucial for carrying heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes, how abrupt and severe would the climate changes be?
Twenty years after the movie’s release, we know a lot more about the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation. Instruments deployed in the ocean starting in 2004 show that the Atlantic Ocean circulation has observably slowed over the past two decades, possibly to its weakest state in almost a millennium. Studies also suggest that the circulation has reached a dangerous tipping point in the past that sent it into a precipitous, unstoppable decline, and that it could hit that tipping point again as the planet warms and glaciers and ice sheets melt.
In a new study using the latest generation of Earth’s climate models, we simulated the flow of fresh water until the ocean circulation reached that tipping point.
The results showed that the circulation could fully shut down within a century of hitting the tipping point, and that it’s headed in that direction. If that happened, average temperatures would drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe, and people would see severe and cascading consequences around the world.
We also discovered a physics-based early warning signal that can alert the world when the Atlantic Ocean circulation is nearing its tipping point.
Ocean currents are driven by winds, tides and water density differences.
In the Atlantic Ocean circulation, the relatively warm and salty surface water near the equator flows toward Greenland. During its journey it crosses the Caribbean Sea, loops up into the Gulf of Mexico, and then flows along the U.S. East Coast before crossing the Atlantic.
This current, also known as the Gulf Stream, brings heat to Europe. As it flows northward and cools, the water mass becomes heavier. By the time it reaches Greenland, it starts to sink and flow southward. The sinking of water near Greenland pulls water from elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and the cycle repeats, like a conveyor belt.
Too much fresh water from melting glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet can dilute the saltiness of the water, preventing it from sinking, and weaken this ocean conveyor belt. A weaker conveyor belt transports less heat northward and also enables less heavy water to reach Greenland, which further weakens the conveyor belt’s strength. Once it reaches the tipping point, it shuts down quickly.
Published: December 6, 2023 2:41pm EST
Christmas today is a big business, and one part of that is the multibillion-dollar business of selling Christmas trees. The U.S. Christmas tree industry is so large, it even has two dueling trade groups: one that supports natural trees and the other, artificial.
We are two business school professors whose students asked us to explain the economic impact of the winter holidays. In the holiday spirit of sharing, we’re giving you some facts to discuss while trimming your tree.
There are three different ways to get a natural Christmas tree.
First, you can go into a national forest and chop down your own. Relatively few Americans do this, even though a permit costs $10 or less, because government rules require that the tree you chop must be more than 200 feet from any road, campground or recreation area. Since dragging a tree destroys its branches and needles, the 200-foot rule means that large, heavy trees have to be carried a fair distance through often snowy woods.
Your second option is to buy or chop down a tree at a local Christmas tree farm. Christmas tree farms got a big promotional boost when Taylor Swift revealed she grew up on one, but she’s hardly alone: There are nearly 3,000 Christmas tree farms across the U.S., according to the Department of Agriculture’s most recent figures. These farms sell around 12 million trees a year.
While being a Christmas tree farmer sounds idyllic, it isn’t very profitable, since Christmas trees take over a decade to grow large enough to sell. Long lead times combined with changing and unpredictable weather have pushed many of these farms out of business. Almost 500 U.S. Christmas tree farms shuttered between 2014 and 2019, the USDA found.
The third way to buy a tree is from a local retailer that imports trees. In 2022, the U.S. imported almost 3 million natural Christmas trees, primarily from Canada. Imports have been growing steadily: In 2014, the U.S. imported only half as many trees.
Together, this means that in 2022, roughly 15 million locally grown or imported natural trees were sold in the country.
Some people like to buy their trees from a nonprofit, like the Boy Scouts. These fundraisers are also supplied from local Christmas tree farms or imports.
Artificial trees are popular with people who don’t like the mess and fuss of natural trees. Replica trees primarily come from China, and most are made in the Chinese city of Yiwu. The U.S. imported over 20 million artificial trees in 2022 alone.
And they’re becoming increasingly common. In 2014, the U.S. imported 11 million artificial trees and sold almost 22 million natural trees. This means that back in 2014, almost two real trees were purchased for every artificial one. A decade later, natural tree sales had fallen to around 15 million, but over 20 million artificial trees were imported.
One result of the shift to replica trees is a reduction in house fires. Natural trees that aren’t watered dry out and sometimes catch on fire. In 1980, the U.S. saw about 850 Christmas tree fires that caused 80 people to be injured. Four decades later, the number of annual fires fell to 180, with only eight injuries.
Some people get sticker shock when they see how much Christmas trees cost. Those shocking prices don’t come from the wholesale level. Last year, wholesalers importing entire shipping containers paid $22 for each artificial tree, on average, according to U.S. government statistics. Importers of natural trees paid roughly the same price. Together, artificial and natural importers paid over a half billion dollars for trees to sell in 2022.
Unfortunately, there are no official statistics on how much Americans pay for Christmas trees at the retail level. There’s a general consensus that artificial trees cost more than natural trees, but the extra money may be worth it because they last more than one season.
Consumer surveys by the two competing trade groups suggest that people paid in the range of $80 to $100 for their trees in 2022. This means the markup on Christmas trees is around 400% to 500%. That’s about the same as a pair of designer jeans or a drink from a hotel minibar.
Multiplying the $80 to $100 price by the 15 million natural trees and 20 million artificial trees sold in 2022 means Christmas trees are roughly a $3 billion business annually — without including any extra money spent on the decorations.
So, with so many options, how do you settle on which sort of tree to buy? Price, environmental factors, convenience and even allergies are all important factors to consider. There’s no easy answer. One of us can’t decide and has multiple trees, ranging from a 12-inch artificial tree handed down from his grandmother to a 7-foot-tall natural Fraser fir purchased at his local Christmas tree farm.
Whatever you decide – natural, artificial, both or no tree at all – just remember to add a dash of cheer to your winter celebration. After all, the best things about the season are free.
Since the news business has changed from reporting to profits, keeping eyeballs is what it is all about.
Fox found this out after they accurately reported that Trump was projected to lose Arizona. Tucker Carlson then ranted about how their viewership was going down, along with the stock price with which he was richly compensated. He understood that their viewers were there to hear what they need to believe. And if they didn’t get it, they would move to Newsmax, Onan and other alternative news sources that would feed the beast.
Rush Limbaugh always understood that and bragged that he was an Entertainer. Are you entertained?
For any democracy to it operate efficiently, it needs an informed electorate. So how do you sort out the news from the fire hose of information flow these days?
1)Realize that your. 00001 experience of the world contributes to 80% of your worldview. Approach your understanding with a scientist skepticism that he’s always willing to accept that he could be wrong.
2)Intentionally expose yourself to opposing views. We don’t like to do this because it makes us uncomfortable. Over the years I have developed a diversity of writers that I follow on the hellscape that is Twitter. Most of us don’t have a luxury of time to do that. It’s not easy being free, when you don’t have an emperor to make all the decisions for you.
3) Turn off the Crisis News networks . If there isn’t good video footage, or if the victim isn’t attractive, you won’t hear about it . Just like the print media, television is all about eyeballs. Now there are live news events that television coverage excels at. Television Studios nowadays don’t need to wait for their cameras to warm up to go live. Walter Cronkite had to wait to give the world the shocking news about Kennedy being shot in Dallas.
4) Read some news sources from outside the United States bubble. Here are some free websites that also have free apps for your handhelds.
A good one to see the southeast Asian perspective on the world is the Asia Times https://asiatimes.com/
Also, try the Arab news source https://www.aljazeera.com/
France 24 for another perspective https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/
The Guardian is one of the few British rags that isn’t just a tabloid http://thrguardian.com/
If you can afford subscription the Financial Times, The Week, The Economist, Wall Street Journal and NY Times will cover a lot of area.
A great little tool that I use is an aggregator that ranks stories by their number of hits in real time. Bookmark this handy page
5) Last, but not least, Social Media is just that and not a source of verifiable information. Outrage and anger build engagement. Realize that you are being baited with these emotions to click on their stories.
NPR chose today to follow-up on a story that literally blew up on Jan. 20, 2022 when the underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.
NPR picked up on the story today https://whttp://NPR picked up on the story today https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming
EOS noted back in March that the extra moisture in the upper atmosphere would trap enough heat to warm the climate 1.5 degrees in the publication
And Space.com in Marchhttps://www.space.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor-warm-earth
So while this vapor will eventually dissipate, we don’t know if it will leave any permanent changes to the chemical composition of the upper atmosphere. We do know that the excess warmth will speed up the melting in Greenland that threatens the stability of the gulf Stream and will also release more methane stored in the permafrost.
Published: July 21, 2023 8.28am EDT in The Conversation
As scorching heat grips large swaths of the Earth, a lot of people are trying to put the extreme temperatures into context and asking: When was it ever this hot before?
Globally, 2023 has seen some of the hottest days in modern measurements, but what about farther back, before weather stations and satellites?
Some news outlets have reported that daily temperatures hit a 100,000-year high.
As a paleoclimate scientist who studies temperatures of the past, I see where this claim comes from, but I cringe at the inexact headlines. While this claim may well be correct, there are no detailed temperature records extending back 100,000 years, so we don’t know for sure.
Here’s what we can confidently say about when Earth was last this hot.
Scientists concluded a few years ago that Earth had entered a new climate state not seen in more than 100,000 years. As fellow climate scientist Nick McKay and I recently discussed in a scientific journal article, that conclusion was part of a climate assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021.
Earth was already more than 1 degree Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) warmer than preindustrial times, and the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were high enough to assure temperatures would stay elevated for a long time.
Even under the most optimistic scenarios of the future – in which humans stop burning fossil fuels and reduce other greenhouse gas emissions – average global temperature will very likely remain at least 1 C above preindustrial temperatures, and possibly much higher, for multiple centuries.
This new climate state, characterized by a multi-century global warming level of 1 C and higher, can be reliably compared with temperature reconstructions from the very distant past. (To continue reading go to Page 2 below)
While it hasn’t made the news, they are letting this fire go ahead and burn.
My grandson works at the Park and sent this picture this morning.
The Sacarmento bee reports
The Pika Fire, started by lightning on June 29, had burned 50 acres near North Dome as of Thursday, July 13, the National Park Service said. Yosemite National Park is warning of smoky conditions. Early Friday, July 14, the Air Quality Index at Yosemite Village exceeded 300, considered hazardous, because of high levels of particulate matter.
Ok, not sure I’ve ever seen the water around Florida look quite like this before… at any time of year – Brian BMcNoldy, Senior University of Miami hurricane researcher.
Advanced nuclear source energy costs can be 3.5 cents/kWh for electricity or 2 cents/kWh for high-temperature heat. This raw, source energy input cost to manufacture nuclear diesel is less than $1 per gallon. Even after adding new refinery capital costs and operations costs I expect new refineries could produce nuclear diesel at current wholesale prices near $3 per gallon.”
