25 Psychological Biases that Influence your Decision-Making

Here’s an overview of 25 psychological biases with a short explanation of each.

Confirmation Bias – We interpret new information as confirmation of our existing beliefs.

Availability Bias – We rely on information that comes to our mind easily/the quickest.

Action Bias – We favor action over inaction. That’s why we sell or buy prematurely.

Overconfidence – We overestimate our own knowledge and ability. Often because we know too little to understand better. (Less knowledge => more confidence)

Survivorship Bias – This is a sample bias that occurs when we assess only successful outcomes and disregard failures.

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Reactive Devaluation – Automatically devaluing opinions from opposing sites or people you dislike.

Ostrich Effect – The tendency to avoid negative (financial) information by pretending not to see it.

Illusion of Validity – Our tendency to overestimate our ability to accurately interpret and predict outcomes. We draw conclusions to make a story coherent and then ignore possible alternatives completely.

Hyperbolic Discounting – We are wired to prefer instant gratification (e.g. payouts). Even when offered significantly more in the future.

Post-Purchase Rationalisation – After a buying decision, we immediately erase all doubts and rationalize our decision. This works combined with the confirmation bias.

Illusion of Asymmetric Insight – We often believe our knowledge surpasses the knowledge of our peers.

False Consensus Effect – Too often, we overestimate the degree to which others agree with us.

Egocentric Bias – Tendency to ascribe oneself more responsibility for success than others or outside factors (e.g. luck or circumstance).

Pro-Innovation Bias – The tendency to overweight the possible usefulness and oversee risks.

Choice Supportive Bias – When we choose something, we feel positive about it. We disregard flaws or mistakes in our logic and switch to a state of cognitive ease.

Self-Serving Bias – We conceive our failures as situational while we claim full responsibility for our successes.

Curse of knowledge – Once we know something, it’s hard to imagine that other people don’t. We automatically assume that everyone else knows it, too.

Dunning-Kruger Effect – The less you know, the more confident you are. The more you know, the less confident you are.

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This effect is similar to WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is)

Belief Bias – We determine the strength of an argument based on how plausible its conclusion is to us, not by how strongly it supports that conclusion.

Escalation of Commitment – We remain committed to things we already invested in.

Pulling out of them feels like a waste of resources. This even applies if pulling out is obviously the best option.

Gambler’s Fallacy – We tend to think that past events affect future possibilities.

Zero-Risk Bias – If a risk is considered small, we assume there is no risk at all.

Outgroup Homogeneity Bias – We perceive outgroup members as homogenous and ingroup members as more diverse.

Clustering Illusion – We always look for cause-effect relationships. Thus, we find patterns and clusters even in totally random data.

Blind Spot Bias – We overlook biases in our own decision-making and see them more in others.

Recency Bias – We tend to put too much weight on recent events.

When things are great, we think they will get only better.
When things are bad, we think they will get only worse.

Credit:

Daniel 

@DANIELMNKE

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Hey, I’m Daniel, 22 years old and currently studying Economics and Finance.

How I try to stay informed…

Since the news business has changed from reporting to profits, keeping eyeballs is what it is all about. 

Fox found this out after they accurately reported that Trump was projected to lose Arizona. Tucker Carlson then ranted about how their viewership was going down, along with the stock price with which he was richly compensated. He understood that their viewers were  there to hear what they need to believe. And if they didn’t get it, they would move to Newsmax, Onan and other alternative news sources that would feed the beast.

Rush Limbaugh always understood that and bragged that he was an Entertainer. Are you entertained?

For any democracy to it operate efficiently, it needs an informed electorate. So how do you sort out the news from the fire hose of information flow these days?

1)Realize that your. 00001 experience of the world contributes to 80% of your worldview. Approach your understanding with a scientist skepticism that he’s always willing to accept that he could be wrong.

 2)Intentionally expose yourself to opposing views. We don’t like to do this because it makes us uncomfortable. Over the years I have developed a diversity of writers that I follow on the hellscape that is Twitter. Most of us don’t have a luxury of time to do that. It’s not easy being free, when you don’t have an emperor to make all the decisions for you.

3) Turn off the Crisis News networks . If there isn’t good video footage, or if the victim isn’t attractive, you won’t hear about it . Just like the print media, television is all about eyeballs. Now there are live news events that television coverage excels at. Television Studios nowadays don’t need to wait for their cameras to warm up to go live. Walter Cronkite had to wait to give the world the shocking news about Kennedy being shot in Dallas.

CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite reports that President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963. Credit CBS via Landov

4) Read some news sources from outside the United States bubble. Here are some free websites that also have free apps for your handhelds. 

A good one to see the southeast Asian perspective on the world is the Asia Times  https://asiatimes.com/

Also, try the Arab news source https://www.aljazeera.com/

France 24 for another perspective https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/

The Guardian is one of the few British rags that isn’t just a tabloid http://thrguardian.com/

If you can afford subscription the Financial Times, The Week, The Economist, Wall Street Journal and NY Times will cover a lot of area.

A great little tool that I use is an aggregator that ranks stories by their number of hits in real time. Bookmark this handy page

https://www.memeorandum.com

5) Last, but not least, Social Media is just that and not a source of verifiable information. Outrage and anger build engagement. Realize that you are being baited with these emotions to click on their stories.

Linguists have identified a new English dialect that’s emerging in South Florida

https://theconversation.com/linguists-have-identified-a-new-english-dialect-thats-emerging-in-south-florida-205620

We got down from the car and went inside.”

“I made the line to pay for groceries.”

“He made a party to celebrate his son’s birthday.”

These phrases might sound off to the ears of most English-speaking Americans.

In Miami, however, they’ve become part of the local parlance.

The Difference Between American and European Abortion Laws

 European countries that have 12-week limits on “elective” abortions still make it fairly easy for women to get abortions later on, with relatively broad exceptions for mental health or socioeconomic circumstances. Republicans have aggressively fought against similar exceptions, and in particular have worked to bar consideration of mental health risk — even the risk of suicide if a pregnancy continues — as a factor.

And in other ways, European countries make it easier to get an abortion than in even relatively permissive jurisdictions in the United States. Across Europe, abortion services are covered under national health insurance, meaning the cost of accessing care is a far lower barrier for pregnant people facing time constraints.By contrast, in the US, cost is one of the biggest hurdles to ending a pregnancy. Even though more than 90 percent of abortions occur within the first 13 weeks, roughly 75 percent of all US abortion patients are low-income according to 2014 numbers, and researchers find Americans needing care in the second trimester tend to be those with less education, Black women, and women who have experienced “multiple disruptive events” in the past year, such as losing a job.

https://www.vox.com/23741997/republicans-12-week-abortion-bans-europe-roe-dobbs

We Can Be Stupid And Still Know It

We Can Be Stupid And Know It

Published: May 8, 2023 8.19am EDT

Debunking the Dunning-Kruger effect – the least skilled people know how much they don’t know, but everyone thinks they are better than average

John Cleese, the British comedian, once summed up the idea of the Dunning–Kruger effect as, “If you are really, really stupid, then it’s impossible for you to know you are really, really stupid.” A quick search of the news brings up dozens of headlines connecting the Dunning–Kruger effect to everything from work to empathy and even to why Donald Trump was elected president.

As a math professor who teaches students to use data to make informed decisions, I am familiar with common mistakes people make when dealing with numbers. The Dunning-Kruger effect is the idea that the least skilled people overestimate their abilities more than anyone else. This sounds convincing on the surface and makes for excellent comedy. But in a recent paper, my colleagues and I suggest that the mathematical approach used to show this effect may be incorrect.

What Dunning and Kruger showed

In the 1990s, David Dunning and Justin Kruger were professors of psychology at Cornell University and wanted to test whether incompetent people were unaware of their incompetence.

To test this, they gave 45 undergraduate students a 20-question logic test and then asked them to rate their own performance in two different ways.

First, Dunning and Kruger asked the students to estimate how many questions they got correct – a fairly straightforward assessment. Then, Dunning and Kruger asked the students to estimate how they did compared with the other students who took the test. This type of self-assessment requires students to make guesses about how others performed and is subject to a common cognitive mistake – most people consider themselves better than average.more

The Age that You Peak at Everything

Age That You PeakMany of the points mark the middle of an age range that scientists have identified, which means they are all determined by averages. Some are also surveys, not controlled trials, so there is a possibility the self-reports don’t capture the most accurate picture.But in many cases, the numbers keep cropping up for a reason, which is that life isn’t a downhill slide from youth.Here’s what you have to look forward to.

Source: The peak age for beauty, wealth, and more – Business Insider

How to Spot a Narcissist

Psychologist and instructor at Harvard Medical School, Craig Malkin, who literally wrote the book on it, Rethinking Narcissism. “Narcissists are arrogant and argumentative, even the shy, quiet types (covert). They’re far more like to interrupt, glaze over when you speak, swear, post provocative pictures, and tag themselves in social media than ever use the word ‘I. “In fact,” adds Malkin, “it’s far more likely that narcissists would use the word ‘you’ because they blame people for everything and rarely take responsibility for their actions. It always about what  did. ‘I-talk’ isn’t going to help much because not all narcissists like talking about themselves anyway. The authors are right. We’re used to the expression ‘it’s always me me me’ and immediately associate it with narcissism… Nothing could be further from the truth.”

2012-06-09-a-NarcissistThe truer mark of a narcissist is absolute clarity about a situation, and an undying commitment to his or her opinion. “Look for an unwavering certainty (‘No—that’s just wrong. Here’s the truth’), name-dropping, attention grabbing gestures, breathless monologues, constant interruptions, and above all, a disagreeable, arrogant style.”

And consider this: Another recent study found that spotting a narcissist can be as easy as using the wonderfully simple “Single Item Narcissism Scale,” which asks just one question: “To what extent do you agree with this statement: ‘I am a narcissist.’” Participants rate their agreement on a scale from one to seven. In other words, if you want to know whether someone’s a narcissist, you really just have to ask them.

via Can You Spot A Narcissist? It’s Not As Easy As You Think, Study Finds – Forbes.

US Segregation Maps

Last year, a pair of researchers from Duke University published a report with a bold title: “The End of the Segregated Century.” U.S. cities, the authors concluded, were less segregated in 2012 than they had been at any point since 1910. But less segregated does not necessarily mean integrated–something this incredible map makes clear in vivid color.

The map, created by Dustin Cable at University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, is stunningly comprehensive. Drawing on data from the 2010 U.S. Census, it shows one dot per person, color-coded by race. That’s 308,745,538 dots in all–around 7 GB of visual data. It isn’t the first map to show the country’s ethnic distribution, nor is it the first to show every single citizen, but it is the first to do both, making it the most comprehensive map of race in America ever created. Thanks to Caroline for sharing this.

US Segregation Maps

Some Christmas Cheer for all you Preppers

image

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/11276913/So-this-is-how-the-world-ends…-isnt-it.html
Aside from the rise of the machines, many potential threats have been identified to our species, our civilisation or even our planet itself. To keep you awake at night, here are seven of the most plausible.

Documentary Storm – Watch Free Documentaries Online

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We believe that documentaries are meant to be shared and debated. The formula for a great documentary is: half Hollywood blockbuster and half Ivy League Education.  A documentary is the love child of both.

We are dedicated to finding you free, full-length documentaries lovingly chosen from around the web. The main goal of this website is to share knowledge, spread ideas, and have fun. We invite you to stroll through DocumentaryStorm: click around. Get lost. Pause. Learn. Speak. Listen.

Knowledge is power.

DocumentaryStorm adds a new documentary EACH and EVERY DAY!

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