What Next?
Perhaps the most tragic example of the problems created by large refugee flows occurred in the wake of the Rwandan genocide in 1994. After the Hutu-led genocide resulted in the death of 800,000 to 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus, the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front “invaded” the country from neighboring Uganda. The RPF was drawn from the 500,000 or so Tutsis who had already fled Rwanda from past pogroms. As the RPF swept through Rwanda, almost 1 million Hutus fled to neighboring Congo, fearing that the evil they did unto others would be done unto them.
For two years after 1994, Hutu bands continued to conduct raids in Rwanda and began to work with Congolese dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. The new RPF government of Rwanda responded by attacking not only the Hutu militia camps, but also its much larger neighbor, bolstering a formerly obscure Congolese opposition leader named Laurent Kabila and installing him in power in Kinshasa. A civil war in Congo ensued, killing perhaps 4 million people.
Afghanistan: 21 mil population, civil war 1989-2001, 76k dead and 6 mil displaced.
Bosnia: 4.4 mil pop, 1991-95, 250k dead and 2.3 mil displaced.
Congo: 60 mil popl, 1991-2006, 4.3 mil dead and 2.7 mil displaced.
Croatia: 4.5 mil popl, 1991-1995, 17k dead, 1 mil displaced.
Kosovo: 1.8 mil pop, 1998-99, 12k dead, 1.3 mil displaced.
Lebannon: 2.7 mil pop, 1975-90, 150k dead and 800k displaced.
Rwanda: 7.7 mil pop, 1994-95, 950k dead and 2 mil displaced.
Somalia: 8.9 mil pop, 1990-2006, 550k dead and 400k displaced.