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Getting the word out (even without the bread) August 17, 2006

Posted by tkcollier in Geopolitics.
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Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog: Getting the word out (even without the bread)

My favorite strategic thinker in one of his better rambles – about why Africa is next…

Fight heads south because Shiia empowered in ME, so Yalta-like split emerging (west and friends get Sunni Egypt, Saudi and Jordan). East increasingly favors Shiia out of desire for energy and need to plus up on non-West-heavy providers. Watch this play out in competing rebuilds in Lebanon, as Sunni govs support Lebanese gov and Shiia states support Hezbollah (quietly).

Thus Iran safe from isolation and sanctions. By proxy (esp. after Lebanon), so too largely is Syria, but neocon mindset will push hard to target them next as revenge for Israel’s poor showing (Iran will be okay with this diversion too).

In a Sunni-Shiia split ME, Al Qaeda does less well, as neither side approves, and to extent Israeli issues dominate, AQ is effective non-player in a very crowded field.

In the end, Iran’s pre-emptive war is a brilliant move…

So the fight heads south into Africa.

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